Large, Moderate or Small? The Challenge of Measuring Mass Eruption Rates in Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract:

The potential impact of a volcanic eruption is highly dependent on its eruption rate. In explosive eruptions ash may pose an aviation hazard that can extend several thousand kilometers away from the volcano. Models of ash dispersion depend on estimates of the volcanic source, but such estimates are prone to high error margins. Recent explosive eruptions, including the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, have provided a wealth of data that can help in narrowing these error margins. Within the EU-funded FUTUREVOLC project, a multi-parameter system is currently under development, based on an array of ground and satellite-based sensors and models to estimate mass eruption rates in explosive eruptions in near-real time. Effusive eruptions are usually considered less of a hazard as lava flows travel slower than eruption clouds and affect smaller areas. However, major effusive eruptions can release large amounts of SO2 into the atmosphere, causing regional pollution. In very large effusive eruptions, hemispheric cooling and continent-scale pollution can occur, as happened in the Laki eruption in 1783 AD. The Bárdarbunga-Holuhraun eruption in 2014-15 was the largest effusive event in Iceland since Laki and at times caused high concentrations of SO2. As a result civil protection authorities had to issue warnings to the public. Harmful gas concentrations repeatedly persisted for many hours at a time in towns and villages at distances out to 100-150 km from the vents. As gas fluxes scale with lava fluxes, monitoring of eruption rates is therefore of major importance to constrain not only lava but also volcanic gas emissions. This requires repeated measurements of lava area and thickness. However, most mapping methods are problematic once lava flows become very large. Satellite data on thermal emissions from eruptions have been used with success to estimate eruption rate. SAR satellite data holds potential in delivering lava volume and eruption rate estimates, although availability and repeat times of radar platforms is still low compared to e.g. the thermal satellites. In the 2014-15 eruption, lava volume was estimated repeatedly from an aircraft-based system that combines radar altimeter with an on-board DGPS, yielding a several estimates of lava volume and time-averaged mass eruption rate.