Advances in Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting Volcanic Ash Plumes over the Past 5 Years and the Impact on Preparedness from the London VAAC Perspective

Abstract:

Hosted and run by the Met Office, the London VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre) is responsible for issuing advisories on the location and likely dispersion of ash clouds originating from volcanoes in the North East Atlantic, primarily from Iceland. These advisories and additional guidance products are used by the civil aviation community to make decisions on airspace flight management.

London VAAC has specialist forecasters who use a combination of volcano source data, satellite-based, ground-based and aircraft observations, weather forecast models and dispersion models. Since the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, which resulted in the decision by many northern European countries to impose significant restrictions on the use of their airspace, London VAAC has been active in further developing its volcanic ash monitoring, modelling and forecasting capabilities, collaborating with research organisations, industry, other VAACs, Meteorological Services and the Volcano Observatory in Iceland. It has been necessary to advance operational capabilities to address evolving requirements, including for more quantitative assessments of volcanic ash in the atmosphere.

Here we summarise advances in monitoring, modelling and forecasting of volcanic ash plumes over the past 5 years from the London VAAC perspective, and the realization of science into operations. We also highlight the importance of collaborative activities, such as the ‘VAAC Best Practice’ Workshop, where information is exchanged between all nine VAACs worldwide on the operational practices in monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash, with the aim of working toward a more harmonized service for decision makers in the aviation community. We conclude on an evaluation of how better we are prepared for the next significant ash-rich Icelandic eruption, and the challenges still remaining.