Simplified solutions to predicting the magnetic vectors within CMEs.

Abstract:

The direction of magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections, CMEs, has significant importance for forecasting terrestrial behavior. However forecasting these vectors remains largely elusive and lies predominately with the difficulty in disassociating the predictive skill of the magnetic configuration during the initiation process with the skill of understanding the evolutionary effects of the topology during propagation. Here, we discuss a simplified system for predicting the magnetic vector within CMEs, driven by observations and empirical relationships. We suggest a modification to a CME helicity rule by Bothmer & Schwenn (1998) can improve the skills with the initiation problem near the solar surface, and accurate triangulation methods of the CME with recent observational studies can improve the predictions of the evolutionary effects. Both tools in conjunction can provide the first steps to providing operationally reliable estimates of the magnetic vectors for all possible CMEs and include scope to improve individual modules within the forecasting scheme. By focusing on Earth-directed CMEs, we can develop forecasting skill scores for multiple CMEs using NOAA definitions for geomagnetic storms. We will present the skill scores of predicted CMEs in relation to their associated Kp values at Earth for CMEs that were predicted in a real-time setting at NASA Space Weather Research Center.