Forecasting the Radiation Belts for Satellites Undergoing Electric-Orbit Raising

Abstract:

The introduction of commercial satellites with all-electric propulsion systems is nothing less than a revolution in the quest for low-cost access to space. As a consequence, it can take as long as 200 – 400 days to raise the perigee of the satellite to final geostationary orbit. During this time the satellites are exposed to the most intense part of the van Allen radiation belts where the electron radiation environment can vary by orders of magnitude as a result of changes in the solar wind. Here we describe briefly this new method of launch and discuss the importance of radiation protection, the need for real-time data on orbit and how physics based models can help supply this need. We describe the forecasting system that was developed in the European SPACECAST project, and is now continued in the SPACESTORM project, and how we use physics based models to forecast the electron flux throughout the outer radiation belt in real-time, updated hourly. We show that forecasts are much improved when the physics of wave-particle interactions is included, and show comparisons between models using different wave models for plasmaspheric hiss and chorus waves. The results emphasise the importance of chorus wave amplitudes. Finally, we discuss some areas of research needed to improve the forecasts, such as the need to understand electron flux drop-outs and their relation to distortions of the geomagnetic field in the tail region, and the need for additional wave models.