Interseismic deformation and moment deficit along the Manila subduction zone and the Philippine Fault system

Abstract:

The Sunda plate converges obliquely with the Philippine Sea plate with a rate of ~100 mm/yr and results in the sinistral slip along the 1300 km-long Philippine fault. Using GPS data from 1998 to 2013 as well as a block modeling approach, we decompose the crustal motion into multiple rotating blocks and elastic deformation associated with fault slip at block boundaries. Our preferred model composed of 8 blocks, produces a mean residual velocity of 3.4 mm/yr at 93 GPS stations. Estimated long-term slip rates along the Manila subduction zone show a gradual southward decrease from 66 mm/yr at the northwest tip of Luzon to 60 mm/yr at the southern portion of the Manila Trench. We infer a low coupling fraction of 11% offshore northwest Luzon and a coupling fraction of 27% near the subduction of Scarborough Seamount. The accumulated strain along the Manila subduction zone at latitudes 15.5°~18.5°N could be balanced by earthquakes with composite magnitudes of M_w 8.7 and M_w 8.9 based on a recurrence interval of 500 years and 1000 years, respectively. Estimates of sinistral slip rates on the major splay faults of the Philippine fault system in central Luzon increase from east to west: sinistral slip rates are 2 mm/yr on the Dalton fault, 8 mm/yr on the Abra River fault, and 12 mm/yr on the Tubao fault. On the southern segment of the Philippine fault (Digdig fault), we infer left-lateral slip of ~20 mm/yr. The Vigan-Aggao fault in northwest Luzon exhibits significant reverse slip of up to 31 mm/yr, although deformation may be distributed across multiple offshore thrust faults. On the Northern Cordillera fault, we calculate left-lateral slip of ~7 mm/yr. Results of block modeling suggest that the majority of active faults in Luzon are fully locked to a depth of 15–20 km. Inferred moment magnitudes of inland large earthquakes in Luzon fall in the range of M_w 7.0–7.5 based on a recurrence interval of 100 years. Using the long-term plate convergence rate between the Sunda plate and Philippine Sea plate as well as seismic moment release rate, we calculate the moment budget for the entire Luzon plate boundary zone that could be balanced by earthquakes with a composite magnitude of ~M_w 9 based on recurrence intervals of 500–1000 years.