Alternative Land-Use Scenarios for Bioenergy Production in the U.S. and Brazil

Abstract:

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be enhanced by growing demand for biofuels. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories and agronomic models to characterize land-use impacts and mitigation scenarios for bioenergy production in the U.S. and Brazil. In the U.S., our gridded historical cropland maps show potential for production in the U.S. on 68 Mha of abandoned croplands in the U.S. which is as much as 70% larger than previous estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. In Brazil, a critical land-use impact is associated with non-GHG air pollutants from the management and expansion of sugarcane feedstocks. Our bottom-up estimate for these Brazilian land-use emissions is seven times larger than estimated from remote-sensing data due to the improved spatial resolution of our approach. While current land-use policies in Brazil and the U.S. seek to reduce life-cycle biofuel emissions, these policies may not support the mitigation alternatives identified here.