Greenhouse gas implications of a 32 billion gallon bioenergy landscape in the US

Abstract:

Sustainable bioenergy for transportation fuel and greenhouse gas (GHGs) reductions may require considerable changes in land use. Perennial grasses have been proposed because of their potential to yield substantial biomass on marginal lands without displacing food and reduce GHG emissions by storing soil carbon. Here, we implemented an integrated approach to planning bioenergy landscapes by combining spatially-explicit ecosystem and economic models to predict a least-cost land allocation for a 32 billion gallon (121 billion liter) renewable fuel mandate in the US. We find that 2022 GHG transportation emissions are decreased by 7% when 3.9 million hectares of eastern US land are converted to perennial grasses supplemented with corn residue to meet cellulosic ethanol requirements, largely because of gasoline displacement and soil carbon storage. If renewable fuel production is accompanied by a cellulosic biofuel tax credit, CO₂ equivalent emissions could be reduced by 12%, because it induces more cellulosic biofuel and land under perennial grasses (10 million hectares) than under the mandate alone. While GHG reducing bioenergy landscapes that meet RFS requirements and do not displace food are possible, the reductions in GHG emissions are 50% less compared to previous estimates that did not account for economically feasible land allocation.