Future changes in daily snowfall intensity projected by large ensemble regional climate experiments

Abstract:

We investigate the future changes in daily snowfall intensity in Japan analyzing the large ensemble regional climate experiments. Dynamical downscalings are conducted by Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) with 20 km from the global climate projections using Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM). Fifty ensemble experiments are performed in the present climate. For the future climate projections, 90 ensemble experiments are performed based on the six patterns of SST changes in the periods when 4 K rise in global-mean surface air temperature is projected.

The accumulated snowfall in winter decreases in Japan except for the northern parts of Japan. Especially, the inland areas in the Sea of Japan side, which is famous for the heaviest snowfall region in the world, shows the remarkable decrease in snowfall in the future climate. The experiments also show increased number of days without snowfall and decreased number of days with weak snowfall due to significant warming in the most parts of Japan. On the other hand, the extreme daily snowfall, which occurs once ten years, would increase at higher elevations in the Sea of Japan side. This means that extreme daily snowfall in the present climate would occur more frequently in the future climate. The warmer atmosphere can contain more water vapor and warmer ocean can supply more water vapor to the low atmosphere. The surface air temperature at higher elevations is still lower than 0 degree Celsius, which could result in the increased extreme daily snowfall.