Quantitative Study of the Present-Day Climate of the Middle Tennessee Elk Watershed Area From Global and Regional Climate Model Simulations

Abstract:

As part of a wider hydro climatic modeling research, we studied the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and temperature over the Middle Tennessee Elk watershed and its environs using regional climate model simulations over the past 30 years. Three sets of simulations with the Hadley Center's regional climate model (PRECIS) were carried out for the present day climate (1980-2010) at a resolution of 25km covering the southeastern U.S. These three sets simulations are driven by lateral boundary conditions taken from ERA-Interim reanalysis, and two global climate models (HadCM3 and ECHAM5) respectively. For validation, high resolution observed daily data sets from North American Land-Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Climate Research Unit, CRU data are used. Preliminary results show that the spatial distribution of the present-day seasonal mean rainfall and temperature, simulated by PRECIS, are not only consistent with NLDAS and CRU but also captured fine scale spatial structures that are missing in the global model simulations due to their coarse resolution. In addition, the annual cycle and intera-anual variability, particularly that of temperature, are reasonably well reproduced by the PRECIS. When comparing the PRECIS simulations with the driving GCMs, PRECIS is sensitive to the choice of the driving GCM, suggesting a careful selection of driving GCM based on the current climate performance for the use of future climate impact assessment. Quantitative understanding of the climate system and better estimation of the fresh water balance over the Middle Tennessee Elk watershed is a vital corner stone for a sustainable economic growth of the region over the coming decades.