NARRCAP and Reanalysis Verification on Precipitation Intensity and Frequency Assessment

Abstract:

Heavy rainfall events due to climate change is expected in many regions around the world. Also, urbanization and resulted land use changes such as reduction in vegetation cover, land surface grading, and increased impervious soil surface area also have profound effects on surface runoff to streams compounded by these precipitation events. We evaluate both historic and future precipitation scenarios using the NARRCAP data via Weather Research Forecasting Model over Northern Virginia, Maryland and Hampton Roads region. A pilot study of WRF-Hydro and Variable Infiltration Capacity model to simulate flows at multiple gaging locations will be attempted at a high resolution (3 km). The results will be beneficial to delineate flood prone areas so that managers and public are better prepared for anticipating and protecting the infrastructure and property.