When does climate shift emerge in the future beyond the historical variability of precipitation?

Abstract:

The climate model MRI-CGCM3 has relatively high horizontal resolution atmosphere among the coupled models which participated in the phases 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We used precipitation of historical experiment from 1850 to 2005 for 156 years and future RCP8.5 scenario experiment from 2006 to 2100 for 96 years simulated by MRI-CGCM3. According to Mora (2013, Nature), we defined 'tipping year' after year 2006 as the time of year when the projected 10-year mean climate of at each grid point moves to a state continuously outside the range of historical variability before year 2006.
Tipping years of annual precipitation are earlier in high latitudes and central tropical Pacific where the increase of precipitation in the end of 21st century is large. In contrast, tipping year does not exist over subtropical high regions where precipitation decreases in the end of 21st century. Tipping year of intense precipitation exist globally including subtropical high regions. In case of Japan region (130-145E, 30-45N), the stronger precipitation intensity is, the earlier tipping year is.