Pre Normal Science and the Transition to Post-Normal Policy

Abstract:

Post-Normal Science as formulated by Funtowicz and Ravetz describes cases where “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high, and decisions urgent”. However Post-Normal Science is better described as Pre-Normal Science, the stage at which something has been observed, but no one quite knows where it came from, what it means (science) or what to do about it (policy). The initial flailing about to reach a useful understanding is later used by those who oppose action to obfuscate by insisting that still nothing is known, what is known is wrong, or at best that more research is needed. Consider AIDS/HIV, stratospheric ozone, tobacco, acid rain, climate change, etc. As these issues gained attention, we entered the Pre-Normal Science stage. What was the cause? How could they be dealt with? Every idea could be proposed and was. Normal science sorted through them. Many proposers of the discarded theories still clutched them strongly, but mostly they are dismissed within the scientific community. Post-Normal Policy ensues when normal science has reached a consensus and it is clear that action is needed but it is economically or philosophically impossible for some to accept that. The response is to deny the utility of science and scientific judgment, thus the attacks on scientists and scientific panels that provide policy makers with their best scientific advice. Recognizing the division between Pre-Normal Science and Post-Normal Policy and the uses of the former to block action by the later is useful for understanding the course of controversies that require normal science to influence policy.