Contrasting responses of the extended Gulf Stream to severe winter forcing

Abstract:

Changes in the path and strength of the extended Gulf Stream, downstream of Cape Hatteras, and the North Atlantic Current (GSNAC), are associated with strong wintertime air-sea interactions that can further influence the atmospheric storm track. The GSNAC response to anomalous air-sea heat fluxes in particular is dependent on the location of excess heat loss, in turn related to meteorological circumstances. Outbreaks of cold continental air may lead to excess cooling over the Sargasso Sea, as in 1976-77. Under these circumstances, the Gulf Stream may intensify through a steepening of cross-stream density gradients. An alternative scenario prevailed during the cold outbreak of 2013-14 where excess cooling occurred over the central subpolar gyre and may have influenced the extreme storminess experienced in western Europe. An objectively-analysed temperature and salinity product (EN4) is used to investigate the variability of the GSNAC. Temperature and salinity profiles are used to obtain geostrophic transport at selected GSNAC transects, confirming strong horizontal temperature gradients and a positive geostrophic velocity anomaly at 70^oW in spring 1977, the strongest spring transport seen in the 1970s at this location. In addition to observations, an eddy-resolving model hindcast spanning 1970-2013, is used to further characterise GSNAC transport variability, allowing a fuller assessment of the relationship between the winter surface heat flux, end-of-winter mixed layer depth, subtropical mode water volume and GSNAC transports. Preliminary results reveal a significant negative correlation between the winter surface heat flux over the Sargasso Sea and the GSNAC transport in the following spring.