A New Approach for Assessing Aquifer Sustainability and the Impact of Proposed Management Actions

Abstract:

Aquifers are under stress worldwide as a result of large imbalances between inflows and outflows. These imbalances are particularly severe in aquifers in semi-arid regions that are heavily pumped for irrigation, such as the High Plains aquifer (HPA) in the United States. The water resources community has responded by placing an increasing emphasis on more sustainable management plans. To aid in the formulation of such plans, we have developed a simple, water-balance-based approach for rapid assessment of the impact of proposed management actions and the prospects for aquifer sustainability. This theoretically sound approach is particularly well suited for assessing the short- to medium-term (years to a few decades) response to management actions in seasonably pumped aquifers. The net inflow (capture) term of the aquifer water balance can also be directly calculated from water-level and water-use data with this approach. Application to the data-rich portion of the HPA in the state of Kansas reveals that practically achievable reductions in annual pumping would have a large impact. For example, a 22% reduction in average annual water use would have stabilized areally averaged water levels across northwest Kansas from 1996 to 2013 because of larger-than-expected and near-constant net inflows. Whether this is a short-term phenomenon or a path to long-term sustainability, however, has yet to be determined. Water resources managers are often in a quandary about the most effective use of scarce funds for data collection in support of aquifer assessment and management activities. This work demonstrates that a strong emphasis should be placed on collection of reliable water-use data; greater resources devoted to direct measurement of pumping will yield deeper insights into an aquifer's future. The Kansas HPA is similar to many other regional aquifers supporting critically needed agricultural production, so this approach should prove of value far beyond the borders of Kansas.