Socio-economic drought in Texas: A Future Perspective

Abstract:

Droughts and the socioeconomic impact it makes are expected to increase in the coming years due to climate change. Here, we review the possible changes in hazard and vulnerability posed by future droughts as a result of anthropogenic global warming in the state of Texas. An ensemble of downscaled and bias corrected meteorological and hydrologic projections representing the future scenarios were used for drought analysis. Quantification of the risk posed by droughts was then performed by considering a composite Drought Risk Index (DRI). DRI consists of two components: (1) Drought Hazard expressed in terms of joint drought magnitude and frequency of occurrence, and (2) Drought Vulnerability which is expressed in terms of the potential indicators representing the future socio-economic scenario of the study region. A set of drought hazard, vulnerability, and composite risk maps were then developed. These maps serve as an aid to identify the regions vulnerable to droughts in future, thus helping in development of mitigation strategies. The results are expected to be relevant for effective water resources management in a consistently drought prone state like Texas.