Evaluation of Drought Occurrence and Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin in South China

Abstract:

This study uses the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model to simulate the hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The observed streamflow data in the Pearl River Basin for the period 1951-2000 are used to evaluate the model simulation results. Further, in this study, the 55 datasets of climate projection from 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the IPCC AR4 (SRES A2/A1B/B1) and AR5 (RCP 2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5) are used to drive the VIC model at 0.5°× 0.5°spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. Then, the monthly Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) are generated to detect the drought occurrence. This study validates the GCMs projection through comparing the observed precipitation for the period of 2000-2013. Then, spatial variation of the frequency change of moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought are analyzed for the 21st century. The study reveals that the frequencies of severe drought and extreme drought occurrences over the Pearl River Basin increase along with time. Specifically, for the scenario of AR5 RCP 8.5, the east and west parts of the Pearl River Basin most likely suffer from severe drought and extreme drought with an increased frequency throughout the 21st century.