Nutrient trends through time in Sweden’s Baltic Drainage Area

Abstract:

Changes in climate and land-use have and will continue to modify regional hydrology, in turn impacting environmental health, agricultural productivity and water resource quality and availability. The Baltic region is an area of interest as the coast spans nine countries- serving over 100 million people. The Baltic Sea contains one of the largest human caused hypoxic dead zones due to eutrophication driven by anthropogenic excess loading of nutrients. Policies to reduce these loads include also international directives and agreements, such as the EU Water Framework Directive, adopted in 2000 to protect and improve water quality throughout the European Union, and the Baltic Sea Action Plan under the Helsinki Commission aimed specifically at reducing the nutrient loading to and mitigating the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. In light of these policies and amidst the number of studies on the Baltic Sea we ask, using the accessible nutrient and discharge data what does nutrient loading look like today? Are the most excessive loads going down? Observed nutrient and flow time series across Sweden allow for answering these questions, by spatial and temporal trend analysis of loads from various parts of Sweden to the Baltic Sea. Analyzing these observed time series in conjunction with the ecological health status classifications of the EU Water Framework Directive, allows in particular for answering the question if the loads into the water bodies with the poorest water quality, and from those to the Baltic Sea, are improving, being maintained or deteriorating. Such insight is required to contribute to relevant and efficient water and nutrient load management. Furthermore, empirically calculating nutrient loads, rather than only modeling, reveals that the water body health classification may not reflect what water bodies actually contribute the heaviest loads to the Baltic Sea. This work also underscores the importance of comprehensive analysis of all available data from long term monitoring programs over large spatial scales, including large water quality gradients, in order to assess and address water management problems of today and the future.