Prognocean Plus: the Science-Oriented Sea Level Prediction System as a Tool for Public Stakeholders

Abstract:

The novel real-time system for sea level prediction, known as Prognocean Plus, has been developed as a new generation service available through the Polish supercomputing grid infrastructure. The researchers can access the service at https://prognocean.plgrid.pl/. Although the system is science-oriented, we wish to discuss herein its potentials to enhance ocean management studies carried out routinely by public stakeholders. The system produces the short- and medium-term predictions of global altimetric gridded Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) time series, updated daily. The spatial resolution of the SLA forecasts is 1/4° x 1/4°, while the temporal resolution of prognoses is equal to 1 day. The system computes the predictions of time-variable ocean topography using five data-based models, which are not computationally demanding, enabling us to compare their skillfulness in respect to physically-based approaches commonly used by different sea level prediction systems. However, the aim of the system is not only to compute the predictions for science purposes, but primarily to build a user-oriented platform that serves the prognoses and their statistics to a broader community. Thus, we deliver the SLA forecasts as a rapid service available online. In order to provide potential users with the access to science results the Web Map Service (WMS) for Prognocean Plus is designed. We regularly publish the forecasts, both in the interactive graphical WMS service, available from the browser, as well as through the Web Coverage Service (WCS) standard. The Prognocean Plus system, as an early-response system, may be interesting for public stakeholders. It may be used for marine navigation as well as for climate risk management (delineate areas vulnerable to local sea level rise), marine management (advise offered for offshore activities) and coastal management (early warnings against coastal floodings).