Predicting Strong Ground-Motion Seismograms for Magnitude 9 Cascadia Earthquakes Using 3D Simulations with High Stress Drop Sub-Events

Abstract:

We have produced broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone by combining synthetics from simulations with a 3D velocity model at low frequencies (≤ 1 Hz) with stochastic synthetics at high frequencies (≥ 1 Hz). We use a compound rupture model consisting of a set of M8 high stress drop sub-events superimposed on a background slip distribution of up to 20m that builds relatively slowly. The 3D simulations were conducted using a finite difference program and the finite element program Hercules. The high-frequency (≥ 1 Hz) energy in this rupture model is primarily generated in the portion of the rupture with the M8 sub-events. In our initial runs, we included four M7.9-8.2 sub-events similar to those that we used to successfully model the strong ground motions recorded from the 2010 M8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake. At periods of 2-10 s, the 3D synthetics exhibit substantial amplification (about a factor of 2) for sites in the Puget Lowland and even more amplification (up to a factor of 5) for sites in the Seattle and Tacoma sedimentary basins, compared to rock sites outside of the Puget Lowland. This regional and more localized basin amplification found from the simulations is supported by observations from local earthquakes. There are substantial variations in the simulated M9 time histories and response spectra caused by differences in the hypocenter location, slip distribution, down-dip extent of rupture, coherence of the rupture front, and location of sub-events. We examined the sensitivity of the 3D synthetics to the velocity model of the Seattle basin. We found significant differences in S-wave focusing and surface wave conversions between a 3D model of the basin from a spatially-smoothed tomographic inversion of Rayleigh-wave phase velocities and a model that has an abrupt southern edge of the Seattle basin, as observed in seismic reflection profiles.