3-D Simulations of Megathrust Earthquakes – Application to the 2003 M8.3 Tokachi-Oki Earthquake

Abstract:

Numerical modeling of megathrust earthquakes is an important tool for seismic hazard assessment, particularly in subduction systems where recordings of great earthquakes are sparse or non-existent. Here, we produce broadband synthetic seismograms for the 2003 M8.3 Tokachi-Oki, Japan earthquake. At long periods (> 1 sec), synthetic waveforms are produced using numerical simulations with the 3D Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (Koketsu et al., 2008). For comparison, these 3D numerical simulations were carried out using both (1) a finite difference method and (2) the finite element code, SPECFEM3D. The 3D simulations were used to validate a compound rupture model, in which slip on the fault consisted of multiple M7 high stress drop asperities superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. At short periods (< 1 sec), we used a summation of stochastic seismograms from point sources, and combined the short and long period synthetics using a matched filter. We compared the broadband synthetics to actual waveform data and the observed response spectral accelerations from the Tokachi-Oki event. We found that the synthetic response spectra are sensitive to the coherence of the rupture front. This work serves to validate this methodology for predicting ground motions for future M8-9 megathrust events in Cascadia.