Perfect plastic approximation revisited: a flowline network model for calving glaciers

Abstract:

Accurate modeling of outlet glacier dynamics requires knowledge of many factors—ice thickness, bed topography, air/ocean temperature, precipitation rate—specific to individual glaciers, and for which only limited data exists. Furthermore, key processes such as iceberg calving remain poorly understood and difficult to include in models. In light of these challenges to even the most sophisticated models, there is great value in simple, computationally efficient models that can capture first-order effects. Many of the simplest models currently in use produce glacier profiles along a central flowline, either ignoring the contribution of tributaries or relying on a measure of “equivalent width” to handle those contributions. Here, we present a simple model that generalizes Nye’s 1953 perfect plastic approximation so that it also predicts the position of the glacier terminus based on the yield strength. Moreover, our model simulates not only a central flowline, but the interactions of a network of tributaries. The model requires only minimal information: glacier geometry (network structure and bed topography, available from observation for select glaciers) and basal shear strength (a reasonably-constrained parameter). We apply the model to Columbia Glacier, Alaska and show that, despite its simplicity, the model is able to reproduce observed centerline profiles and terminus retreat for the main branch as well as selected tributaries. Finally, we illustrate how our model can be applied to constrain the calving contribution of individual glaciers to 21st century sea level rise.