An Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Approach to Cesium-137 Transport in Forested Fukushima Watersheds

Abstract:

The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident in Japan resulted in a significant dissemination of cesium-137 (Cs-137) over a wide area west of the plant, including the contamination of many watersheds and the subsequent evacuation of many communities. Today approximately 90% of on-land Cs-137 fallout following the accident resides in the upper 5 cm of forest soils. While this can be partially attributed to the forested composition of the prefecture (70%), there is also difficulty in cleanup efforts in these regions due to a lack of understanding and predictive capability of radioisotopes transport at the catchment to watershed scale. Subsequently, there is an uncertain, but likely long-term impact on local communities with implications for the use of nuclear energy use worldwide. Due to the complex nature of forest eco-hydrology, sophisticated modeling tools to accurately predict Cs-137 fluxes across different spatial and temporal scales are required. High fidelity, high resolution numerical modeling techniques in conjunction with parallel high performance computing is required to accurately determine transport and feedbacks in these complex systems. To better understand the fundamental transport of Cs-137, a watershed near the FDNPP is modeled with an integrated hydrologic model that includes variably saturated groundwater and overland flow in addition to atmospheric and vegetative processes via a coupled land surface model. Of specific interest is the impact of land cover type on hydrologic flow in the area, which will likely play an important role in erosion patterns and the consequent transport of Cs-137 strongly sorbed to surface soils. Risk management practices (for example, passive remediation versus active remediation such as targeted logging) for two principal tree types (evergreen and deciduous) are informed given the simulated responses to flow patterns assuming different quantities and spatial distribution patterns of each tree type.