Exploring the co-evolution of marine ecology and environment in silico

Abstract:

Species do not live in isolation, but adapt and ultimately, evolve, in relationship with other species as well as with their chemical and physical environment. In the marine environment, this interaction is intimately two-way – the surface biogeochemical environment modulates the makeup of the pelagic ecosystem, yet at the same time, the ecosystem assemblage, by setting the strength of the biological pump and ultimately, in regulating the carbon and nutrient inventory of the ocean and atmospheric pCO₂, influences the surface geochemical environment. Feedbacks, both negative and positive, must therefore exist between plankton ecology and global biogeochemical cycles. This has implications for understanding the geological record and particularly the response and recovery of marine ecosystems following major environmental perturbation, but also complicates making projections of future ocean changes.

To address a coupled system such as this, new numerical tools are needed as traditional ‘functional type’ marine ecosystem models are generally incapable of accounting for short-term adaptation, let alone long-term evolution. What is needed is the combination of a plankton model able to simulate a highly diverse ecology plus ‘genetic’ mutation (changes in trait value(s)) and extinction, *and* an Earth system model capable of simulating long-term evolution of the climatology and geochemistry of the ocean. The Earth system model ‘cGENIE’ – http://mycgenie.seao2.org generally fills the second criteria, so for this presentation I will focus on the structure of the ecosystem model, the associated methodology, and numerical techniques for dealing with what will turn out to be an exceptionally large number of ocean tracers. If you are really lucky, there may even be some preliminary results :)