Empirical Quantification of the Runaway Greenhouse Limit on Earth

Abstract:

There have been many modeling studies of the runaway greenhouse effect and the conditions required to produce one on an Earth-like planet, however these models have not been verified with empirical evidence. It has been suggested that the Earth’s tropics may be near a state of localized runaway greenhouse, meaning the surface temperature and atmospheric composition in those areas could cause runaway greenhouse, were it not for the tempering effects of meridional heat transport and circulation (Pierrehumbert, 1995). Using the assumption that some areas of the Earth’s tropics may be under these conditions, this study uses measurements of the atmospheric properties, surface properties, and radiation budgets of these areas to quantify a radiation limit for runaway greenhouse on Earth, by analyzing the dependence of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere on surface temperature and total column water vapour. An upper limit on OLR for clear-sky conditions was found between 289.8 W/m² and 292.2 W/m², which occurred at surface temperatures near 300K. For surface temperatures above this threshold, total column water vapour increased, but OLR initially decreased and then remained relatively constant, between 273.6 W/m² and 279.7 W/m². These limits are in good agreement with recent modeling results (Goldblatt et al., 2013), supporting the idea that some of the Earth’s tropics may be in localized runaway greenhouse, and that radiation limits for runaway greenhouse on Earth can be empirically derived. This research was done as part of Maura Dewey’s undergraduate honours thesis at the University of Victoria.

Refs: Robert T. Pierrehumbert. Thermostats, radiator fins, and the local runaway greenhouse. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 52(10):1784-1806, 1995.
Colin Goldblatt, Tyler D. Robinson, Kevin J. Zahnle, and David Crisp. Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates. Nature Geoscience, 6:661-667, 2013.