Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

Abstract:

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

Hee Jung Ham¹, Seung-Hun Choi¹, Woo-Seok Yun¹, Sungsu Lee²

¹Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea

²Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea

 

ABSTRACT

In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea.

Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability.

Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by a grant ‘Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea’ [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

References

1. Nimlos, T. J. and Hans, Z., The Distribution and Thickness of Volcanic Ash in Montana, Northwest Science, Vol. 56, No. 3, 1982.

2. Wilson, T., Kaye, G., Stewart, C., and Cole, J., Impacts of the 2006 Eruption of Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, on Agriculture and Infrastructure, GNS Science Report, 2007.