Long-term Trend of Cold Air Mass Amount below a Designated Potential Temperature in Northern and Southern Hemisphere Winters with 7 Different Reanalysis Datasets

Abstract:

This study addresses that the hemispheric total cold air mass amount defined below a threshold potential temperature of 280 K is a good indicator of the long-term trend of climate change in the polar region. We demonstrate quantitative analyses of warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) winters, using 7 different reanalysis datasets (JRA-55, JRA-55C, JRA-55AMIP, ERA-interim, CFSR, JRA-25, NCEP-NCAR).

Hemispheric total cold air mass amount in the NH winter exhibit a statistically significant decreasing trend in all reanalysis datasets at a rate about -1.37 to -0.77% per decade over the period 1959-2012 and at a rate about -1.57 to -0.82% per decade over 1980-2012. There is no statistically significant trend in the equatorward cold air mass flux across latitude of 45N, which is an indicator for hemispheric-scale cold air outbreak, over the period 1980-2012 except for NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset which shows substantial decreasing trend of about -3.28% per decade. The spatial distribution of the long-term trend of cold air mass amount in the NH winter is almost consistent among reanalysis datasets except for JRA-55AMIP over the period 1980-2012. Cold air mass amount increases over Central Siberia, Kamchatka peninsula, and Bering Sea, while it decreases over Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Greenland, Canada, Northern part of United States, and East Asia.

In the SH winter, on the other hand, there is a large discrepancy in hemispheric total cold air mass amount and equatorward cold air mass flux across latitude of 50S over the period 1980-2010 among reanalysis datasets. This result indicate that there is a large uncertainty in the long-term trend of cold air mass amount in the SH winter.