Simulating the impacts of large scale insect- and disease-driven tree mortality on atmospheric chemistry

Abstract:

Land-use and land-cover change (LUC) is an important driver of global change through the alteration of local energy, moisture, and carbon exchanges. LUC can also directly impact the emission and deposition of important reactive trace gases, altering the oxidative chemistry of the atmosphere and subsequently air quality and climate. Large-scale tree mortality as a result of insects and disease may therefore have unexplored feedbacks on atmospheric chemistry. Between 2013 and 2027, over 80 million acres of treed land in the United States is predicted to experience basal area mortality rates exceeding 25%. We harmonized the description of land cover across the relevant surface-atmosphere exchange processes in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to facilitate LUC simulations, and used this adapted model to test the impact of projected tree mortality according to the 2012 USDA National Insect and Disease Risk Assessment. Nation-wide biogenic VOC emissions were reduced by 5%, with local impacts approaching 50% in some regions. By themselves, these emission reductions resulted in lower surface-level O₃ mixing ratios, but this was counteracted by decreases in the O₃ deposition velocity (by up to 10%) due to the reduction in vegetation density. Organic aerosol mass concentrations were also significantly affected across the United States, decreasing by 5-10% across the eastern U.S. and the northwest, with local impacts exceeding 25% in some regions. We discuss the general impacts on air quality in clean and polluted regions of the US, and point to developments needed for a more robust understanding of land cover change feedbacks.