SH53A-2468
Ensemble Modeling within the WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Model
Friday, 18 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Michele D Cash, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Victor J Pizzo, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Curt A de Koning, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Douglas Alan Biesecker, NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States and Dusan Odstrcil, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Abstract:
Following on the hypothetical ensemble work presented in Pizzo et al. (2015), we apply these findings to specific CME events for which there are both SOHO and STEREO coronagraph imagery available. Using a list of 75 events established as part of an internal, on-going validation and verification study of WSA-Enlil at SWPC, we categorize the CMEs as falling into one of four classes: (1) slow CME in slow wind, (2) slow CME in fast wind, (3) fast CME in slow wind, and (4) fast CME in fast wind, where we define slow CMEs as having radial ejecta speeds of <500km/s and fast CMEs as having radial ejecta speeds of >800km/s. Events that show significant variation between fits by different individuals are identified, and the variations in the parameters characterizing the CME ejecta are used to generate an ensemble set of CME input parameters. The ensemble members are modeled using the coupled WSA-Enlil solar wind model (WSA V2.6 and Enlil V2.7e) to obtain a range of estimates for the CME arrival time at Earth. These ensemble results are then compared to the findings of the Pizzo et al. (2015) study to determine whether the results from this hypothetical study are consistent with observed events.
