Modelling the force balance of magnetic flux ropes between the Sun and 1AU: application to space weather predictions

Abstract:

We propose a modification of the Chen magnetic flux rope model that computes the forces acting on a twisted magnetic flux rope from the Sun to 1AU. This model assumes a more realistic flux rope geometry than used by previous semi-analytical models. It also allows the 3-D vector components of the magnetic field measured by a probe flying through the flux rope to be extracted for any flux rope orientation imposed near the Sun. We present a parametric study of this model based on systematic comparaison of the model with in-situ measurements. We also report on our investigations of other physical mechanisms such as the shift of flux-surfaces associated with the magnetic forces acting to accelerate the flux rope from the lower to upper corona. Finally, we present an evaluation of this model for space-weather prediction.