Impact of lengthening open water season on food security in Alaska coastal communities: Global impacts may outweigh local “frontline” effects

Abstract:

Using ice concentration data from the Alaska Sea Ice Atlas from 1953-2013 for selected communities in Alaska, we find a consistent trend toward later freeze up and earlier breakup, leading a lengthened open water period. Such changes are often considered to bring a variety of “frontline” local impacts to Arctic coastal communities such as increased rates of coastal erosion. However, direct consequences of these changes to local food security (e.g. through impacts on subsistence activities and marine transport of goods) may be outweighed at least in the short term by the effects of large scale Arctic sea ice change coupled with global oil markets. For example, a later freeze-up might delay local hunters’ transition from boats to snow-machines, but whether this trend will affect hunting success, especially in the next few years, is uncertain. Likewise, the magnitude of change in open water season length is unlikely to be sufficient to increase the frequency with which communities are served by barges. However, an expanding open water season throughout the Arctic has implications for the global economy, which can have indirect effects on local communities. In the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, where rapid sea ice change has been accompanied by increased interest in oil and gas development, the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management currently requires drilling operations to cease 38 days prior to freeze up. Taking this into account, the lengthening open water season has effectively extended the drilling season for oil companies by 184% since the 1950s. If oil development goes ahead, local communities will likely experience a range of indirect impacts on food security due to increased vessel traffic and demand on infrastructure coupled with changes in local economies and employment opportunities. Increased likelihood of an oil spill in coastal waters also poses a significant threat to local food security. Thus, while Arctic coastal communities are already experiencing direct impacts of reduced sea ice extent, these may be over-shadowed by the indirect effects of global impacts.