Projecting the Dependence of Sage-steppe Vegetation on Redistributed Snow in a Warming Climate.

Abstract:

In mountainous regions, the redistribution of snow by wind can increase the effective precipitation available to vegetation. Moisture subsidies caused by drifting snow may be critical to plant productivity in semi-arid ecosystems. However, with increasing temperatures, the distribution of precipitation is becoming more uniform as rain replaces drifting snow. Understanding the ecohydrological interactions between sagebrush steppe vegetation communities and the heterogeneous distribution of soil moisture is essential for predicting and mitigating future losses in ecosystem diversity and productivity in regions characterized by snow dominated precipitation regimes. To address the dependence of vegetation productivity on redistributed snow, we simulated the net primary production (NPP) of aspen, sagebrush, and C3 grass plant functional types spanning a precipitation phase (rain:snow) gradient in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed and Critical Zone Observatory (RCEW-CZO). The biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC was used to simulate NPP at three sites located directly below snowdrifts that provide melt water late into the spring. To assess climate change impacts on future plant productivity, mid-century (2046-2065) NPP was simulated using the average temperature increase from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) data set under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. At the driest site, mid-century projections of decreased snow cover and increased growing season evaporative demand resulted in limiting soil moisture up to 30 and 40 days earlier for aspen and sage respectively. While spring green up for aspen occurred an average of 13 days earlier under climate change scenarios, NPP remained negative up to 40 days longer during the growing season. These results indicate that the loss of the soil moisture subsidy stemming from prolonged redistributed snow water resources can directly influence ecosystem productivity in the rain:snow transition zone.