Evaluation of crop yield simulations in the SE USA using the NARCCAP regional climate models

Abstract:

We integrate climate projections, crop modeling systems and economic assessment to develop a tool for studying and assessing agricultural production in the southeast United States. This integrated framework will enable us to assess the potential impact of future climate variability and trend on the production of economically-valuable crops in the southeast United States where weather/climate has major effects on agricultural yields. Optimally weighted multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are used in order to improve the projection of future regional crop yield. This research will enhance the current knowledge of linking climate and process models, with an economic evaluation, as a demonstration of an approach that can be applied for other settings, problems, etc.  The current maize/peanut/cotton yields and the future yield projections over the southeast US were obtained using (a) observed COOP data (1971-2010), (b) a reanalysis (NCEP R2), and (c) the NARCCAP (CMIP3) ensemble data for irrigated and non-irrigated conditions with 7 to 8 different planting dates (potential adaptation options). We found that the future yield amounts over the southeast US are generally decreased in the NARCCAP runs.