Magma migration at the onset of the 2012-13 Tolbachik eruption revealed by Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analyses

Abstract:

In contrast of the 1975-76 Tolbachik eruption, the 2012-2013 Tolbachik eruption was not preceded by any striking change in seismic activity. By processing the Klyuchevskoy volcano group seismic data with the Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis (SARA) method, we gain insights into the dynamics of magma transfer prior to this important eruption. We highlighted a clear migration of the source of the microseismicity within the seismic swarm, starting 20 hours before the reported eruption onset (05:15 UTC, 26 November 2012). This migration proceeded in different phases and ended when eruptive tremor, corresponding to lava extrusion, was recorded (at ~11:00 UTC, 27 November 2012). In order to get a first order approximation of the location of the magma, we compare the calculated seismic intensity ratios with the theoretical ones. As expected, the observations suggest a migration toward the eruptive vent. However, we explain the pre-eruptive observed ratios by a vertical migration under the northern slope of Plosky Tolbachik volcano that would interact at shallower depth with an intermediate storage region and initiate the lateral migration toward the eruptive vents. Another migration is also captured by this technique and coincides with a seismic swarm that started 16-20 km to the south of Plosky Tolbachik at 20:31 UTC on November 28 and lasted for more than 2 days. This seismic swarm is very similar to the seismicity preceding the 1975-76 Tolbachik eruption and can be considered as a possible aborted eruption.