How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?

Friday, 18 December 2015: 11:20
103 (Moscone South)
Bruno Merz1, Heiko Apel1, Björn Guse2, Viet Dung Nguyen1,3, Daniela Falter1, Heidi Kreibich1, Kai Schroeter1 and Sergiy Vorogushyn1, (1)GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany, (2)Kiel University, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Kiel, Germany, (3)Southern Institute of Water Resources Research SIWRR, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Flood risk management is increasingly based on risk assessments whereas risk is defined as the probability of flood losses. The quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete risk chain, from the atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. For a given flood risk system, a multitude of changes can occur along this risk chain possibly affecting flood risk. Hence, it is important to understand how changes in different risk components affect the spatio-temporal distribution of risk. Applying a flood risk model chain to German case studies, we analyze how changes propagate along the risk chain. We discuss how they influence different parts of the risk curve, for example, whether a certain change has a similar influence on low probability/high impact events and high probability/low impact events. This is important information for risk-based design and risk management.