Finite fault kinematic inversion of the 2012, May 20th and 29th Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy, Earthquakes.

Abstract:

In this study, we investigate the rupture process of the 2012, May 20 and 29, M_w 6.1 and 5.9, respectively,  Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy, earthquakes. The two earthquakes struck a densely populated region, causing 26 fatalities and significantly damaging the economy of the region. We image the rupture history of these events, by separately and jointly inverting strong motions, GPS displacements and High-Rate GPS data. The region of interest is a sedimentary basin (the Po Plain) surrounded by the northern Apennines; and it is characterized by a significant presence of fluid and strong heterogeneities leading to remarkable site effects and liquefaction phenomena; for these reasons we adopt an ad-hoc velocity profiles at each station, by inverting in a low-intermediate frequency band (0 - 0.25 Hz). We use a two-stage non-linear inversion technique that, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each model parameter. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of parameter space. In the second stage the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the ensemble providing us the best-fitting model, the average model, and the associated standard deviation, coefficient of variation, moda and median distributions. The goal of our work is to constrain the earthquake rupture history and to assess the associated model uncertainty, to better understand the mechanics of the causative fault as well as the observed ground shaking.