To select better adaption plan for water resources management while facing to the uncertainty of the global climate change: A case from Hualien, eastern Taiwan

Abstract:

The climate change has resulted in a different precipitation pattern and higher uncertainty on future prediction; therefore the analysis for making decision on the water resource management becomes even more uncertain. Consequently a novel model is needed to develop for the purpose of such a challenge. This study used conditions of climate prediction and scenario suggested by IPCC working group to simulate hydrological situation for the study area under serious climate change. The simulated uncertainty is assumed by artificially moving the boundary of the uncertainty towards worse. The well-accepted hydrological kinetic model is utilized to examine the water deficit risk. Furthermore this study further analyzed the robustness and opportuness by IGDT method to find out better adaption plan for the water resource management if the uncertainty becomes larger.