Drought Impacts on Reservoir Storage and Hydro-electricity Production in Southeastern Brazil

Abstract:

Brazilian hydroelectric plants (HP) generate ~85% of the total electricity in the country (138 GW). More than half of the number largest reservoirs are located in the Southeast/Midwest region, where ~50% of the population (~100 million) lives. The 2014 drought raised several questions about the resilience of the water sources when several urban centers, including Brazilian’s largest metropolis (São Paulo, 20 million people), had their water supply threatened. Such drought also affected reservoirs of hydroelectric plants. This study assesses how the storage and, thus the electricity generation, in 14 of the largest reservoirs were affected by drought events within the past 20 years. We computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify rainfall anomalies throughout the analyzed period. To evaluate the impacts on surface water, we assessed the changes in total (surface+ subsurface) runoff and soil moisture from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and in Total Water Storage (TWS) from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. We evaluated the anomalies and significance of the changes in reservoir storage (RS) and electricity generation. The results show that severe dry years (-1.5 < SPI <-2.0) reduce reservoir storage (RS) by up to ~60% of its total capacity. Both electricity generation and reservoir storage showed strong negative trends between 2011 and 2014. Our results also indicate that within the past 20 years, two major depletions in reservoir storage occurred: 2001 and 2014. However, due to lower soil moisture in 2013 compared to that in 2000, distinct impacts were observed on the reservoirs with much stronger impacts on reservoir storage in 2014 relative to those in 2001. No meaningful changes in runoff were shown by GLDAS during the 2014 drought. The observed depletion in the RS in 2014 was similar to that in the TWS, as shown by GRACE data. In 2014, the electricity production by the HP declined by ~20%. As a result, the electricity generated by such source decreased to ~70% of the total production, compared to 82% and 93% in 2013 and 2012, respectively. This analysis highlights the vulnerability of surface water resources and electricity generation to extreme droughts and underscores the need to develop coping mechanisms to enhance drought resilience in the future.