Kalman Filtering and Smoothing of the Van Allen Probes Observations to Estimate the Radial, Energy and Pitch Angle Diffusion Rates

Abstract:

The Kalman filter technique combines the strengths of new physical models of the Earth’s radiation belts with long-term spacecraft observations of electron fluxes and therefore provide an extremely useful method for the analysis of the state and evolution of the electron radiation belts. However, to get the reliable data assimilation output, the Kalman filter application is confronted with a set of fundamental problems. E.g., satellite measurements are usually limited to a single location in space, which confines the reconstruction of the global evolution of the radiation environment. The uncertainties arise from the imperfect description of the process dynamics and the presence of observation errors, which may cause the failure of data assimilation solution. The development of adaptive Kalman filter that combines the Van Allen Probes data and 3-D VERB code, its accurate customizations in the reconstruction of model describing the phase space density (PSD) evolution, extension of the possibilities to use measurement information, and the model adjustment by developing the identification techniques of model and measurement errors allowed us to reveal hidden and implicit regularities of the PSD dynamics and obtain quantitative and qualitative estimates of radial, energy and pitch angle diffusion characteristics from satellite observations. In this study we propose an approach to estimate radial, energy and pitch angle diffusion rates, as well as the direction of their propagation.