Taming Data to Make Decisions: Using a Spatial Fuzzy Logic Decision Support Framework to Inform Conservation and Land Use Planning

Abstract:

With the abundance of data sources, analytical methods, and computer models, land managers are faced with the overwhelming task of making sense of a profusion of data of wildly different types. Luckily, fuzzy logic provides a method to work with different types of data using language-based propositions such as “the landscape is undisturbed,” and a simple set of logic constructs. Just as many surveys allow different levels of agreement with a proposition, fuzzy logic allows values reflecting different levels of truth for a proposition. Truth levels fall within a continuum ranging from Fully True to Fully False. Hence a fuzzy logic model produces continuous results.

The Environmental Evaluation Modeling System (EEMS) is a platform-independent, tree-based, fuzzy logic modeling framework. An EEMS model provides a transparent definition of an evaluation model and is commonly developed as a collaborative effort among managers, scientists, and GIS experts. Managers specify a set of evaluative propositions used to characterize the landscape. Scientists, working with managers, formulate functions that convert raw data values into truth values for the propositions and produce a logic tree to combine results into a single metric used to guide decisions. Managers, scientists, and GIS experts then work together to implement and iteratively tune the logic model and produce final results.

We present examples of two successful EEMS projects that provided managers with map-based results suitable for guiding decisions: sensitivity and climate change exposure in Utah and the Colorado Plateau modeled for the Bureau of Land Management; and terrestrial ecological intactness in the Mojave and Sonoran region of southern California modeled for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan.