Integrating Geologic, Geochemical and Geophysical Data in a Statistical Analysis of Geothermal Resource Probability across the State of Hawaii

Abstract:

Hawaii offers the opportunity to gain knowledge and develop geothermal energy on the only oceanic hotspot in the U.S. As a remote island state, Hawaii is more dependent on imported fossil fuel than any other state in the U.S., and energy prices are 3 to 4 times higher than the national average. The only proven resource, located on Hawaii Island’s active Kilauea volcano, is a region of high geologic risk; other regions of probable resource exist but lack adequate assessment. The last comprehensive statewide geothermal assessment occurred in 1983 and found a potential resource on all islands (Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, 1983).

Phase 1 of a Department of Energy funded project to assess the probability of geothermal resource potential statewide in Hawaii was recently completed. The execution of this project was divided into three main tasks: (1) compile all historical and current data for Hawaii that is relevant to geothermal resources into a single Geographic Information System (GIS) project; (2) analyze and rank these datasets in terms of their relevance to the three primary properties of a viable geothermal resource: heat (H), fluid (F), and permeability (P); and (3) develop and apply a Bayesian statistical method to incorporate the ranks and produce probability models that map out Hawaii’s geothermal resource potential. Here, we summarize the project methodology and present maps that highlight both high prospect areas as well as areas that lack enough data to make an adequate assessment. We suggest a path for future exploration activities in Hawaii, and discuss how this method of analysis can be adapted to other regions and other types of resources.

The figure below shows multiple layers of GIS data for Hawaii Island. Color shades indicate crustal density anomalies produced from inversions of gravity (Flinders et al. 2013). Superimposed on this are mapped calderas, rift zones, volcanic cones, and faults (following Sherrod et al., 2007). These features were used to identify probable locations of intrusive rock (heat) and permeability.