Factors affecting spruce establishment and recruitment near western treeline, Alaska

Abstract:

Regional warming and increases in tree growth are contributing to increased productivity near the western forest margin in Alaska. The effects of warming on seedling recruitment has received little attention, in spite of forecasted forest expansion near western treeline. Here, we used stand structure and environmental data from white spruce (Picea glauca) stands (n = 95) sampled across a longitudinal gradient to explore factors influencing white spruce growth, establishment and recruitment in southwest Alaska. Using tree-ring chronologies developed from a subset of the plots (n = 30), we estimated establishment dates and basal area increment (BAI) for trees of all age classes across a range of site conditions. We used GLMs (generalized linear models) to explore the relationship between tree growth and temperature in undisturbed, low elevation sites along the gradient, using BAI averaged over the years 1975-2000. In addition, we examined the relationship between growing degree days (GDD) and seedling establishment over the previous three decades. We used total counts of live seedlings, saplings and live and dead trees, representing four cohorts, to evaluate whether geospatial, climate, and measured plot covariates predicted abundance of the different size classes. We hypothesized that the relationship between abundance and longitude would vary by size class, and that this relationship would be mediated by growing season temperature. We found that mean BAI for trees in undisturbed, low elevation sites increased with July maximum temperature, and that the slope of the relationship with temperature changed with longitude (interaction significant with 90% confidence). White spruce establishment was positively associated with longer summers and/or greater heat accumulation, as inferred from GDD. Seedling, sapling and tree abundance were also positively correlated with temperature across the study area. The response to longitude was mixed, with smaller size classes (seedlings, small saplings) most abundant at the western end of the gradient, and larger size classes (trees) most abundant to the east, suggesting a moving front of white spruce establishment near western treeline.