Creep avalanches on the Central San Andreas Fault: Clues and Causes

Abstract:

The Central segment of San Andreas Fault (CSAF) is characterized by a nearly continuous right-lateral aseismic slip. However, observations of the creep rate obtained using Characteristically Repeating Earthquakes (CREs) show a quasi-periodic temporal variation, which is recently confirmed using both InSAR surface deformation time series and geodetic-based time-dependent kinematic model of creep along the CSAF. Here, we show that the statistical analysis of creep fronts along the CSAF indicates a sporadic behavior, signature of a burst-like creep dynamics. Moreover, the probability of creep velocities follows a Gumbel distribution characterized by longer tail toward the extreme positive rates. Fourier analysis of the time series of surface creep rate indicates a self-affine regime with Hurst exponent altering between 0.6 and 0.9 during the observation period of 2003-2011. The variable Hurst component is an indicator for temporal variation in the roughness of the fault zone. To explain the causes of creep avalanches, two possible mechanisms are considered, including temporal variation in: 1) fault geometry, and 2) Ambient normal stress. We find that the overall statistical dependence between the pattern of surface creep rate and the fault geometry is insignificant. To investigate the effect of ambient normal stress, primarily due to variation in pore pressure, we implement a rate and state friction law to link the time-dependent kinematic creep model to the spatiotemporal variations of the normal stress on the velocity-strengthening fault zones. These observations and models help to understand the driving mechanisms that govern the creep rate variations at short spatial length and low velocities. Under these circumstances, the other mechanisms such as thermal pressurization are not feasible.