Declining Snow Cover Reduces Radiative Cooling from Historic Land Use Change in the Western Great Lakes Region

Abstract:

The Anthropocene is characterized by rapid changes in both land use and snow cover. The relative importance of these two forces remains unknown but may have important and long-term biophysical effects that are not adequately incorporated into current modeling efforts. Humans have altered the landscape of the Eastern U.S. both historically through deforestation during European settlement and more recently through climatic reductions in snow cover. Here we empirically reconstruct historic albedo in the Eastern U.S. using both modern and historic data. We focus on the Western Great Lakes region (MI, WI, MN, IL, IN), a global hotspot of historic deforestation that spans latitudes where anthropogenic climate modifications have produced important changes in snow cover. We find that vegetation changes have caused an overall increase in regional albedo that is strongest where intensive land use persists (i.e. agriculture) and weakest where forest regrowth has occurred. Changes in snow cover have caused an overall decrease in regional albedo that is about half as strong as increase in albedo due to vegetation change. Although the negative forcings of historic land use change may currently provide a radiative ‘discount’ on regional warming, these benefits are likely to disappear with time as snow cover decreases and forest regrowth continues.