Estimation of Anthropogenic Conversion of Holocene Wetland Cover.

Abstract:

Wetland conversion (or reclamation) has been practiced since the dawn of civilization to this day, transforming biogeochemical cycles and threatening biodiversity, but record of wetland conversion are sparse and unreliable. A figure that “half of the world’s wetlands have been lost since the year 1900” is commonly cited despite its origin as an inadequate extrapolation from the US-Midwest in the 1950s. Recently, earth observation technologies have facilitated measurement of wetland cover but are limited temporally. Alternatively, meta-analyses of historical reclamation records suggest conversion rates exceeding 50% since 1900 but may be biased by the records coming mostly from highly-converted sites in recent times. Large reclamation projects during the early historical period are well known but not reliably quantified, shedding uncertainty on the natural wetland baseline relative to which conversion rates should be measured. Rates of loss based on relatively recent baselines (industrial/pre-settlement) cannot account for conversion prior to the baseline date, and may reinforce the perception of humans have substantially altered natural processes only recently.

I estimate global wetland conversion with a geospatial approach based on maps of potential wetland cover and historical land cover (and irrigation) reconstructions, then compare estimates with historical records, thus bringing together the two main lines of evidence. Conversion is estimated as potential wetland areas undergoing change to ‘non-natural’ land cover, and estimates are contextualized relative to a Holocene natural wetland cover baseline. Potential wetland maps from vegetation and hydrological models that exclude drainage and water abstraction processes are used as they are the closest existing to natural wetland cover, despite being based on current-day climatology. To distinguish more types of reclamation practices than existing land cover classes, the GIS estimates are ‘calibrated’ regionally to match the historical records, and then used for an adjusted extrapolated estimate. Moreover, I distinguish a few broad wetland categories to estimate conversion rates specific to each one to test the hypothesis that certain types (e.g. riparian floodplain) have been more converted than others.