Vulnerability of Eastern Caribbean Islands Economies to Large Earthquakes: The Trinidad and Tobago Case Study

Abstract:

The economies of most of the Anglo-phone Eastern Caribbean islands have tripled to quadrupled in size since independence from England. There has also been commensurate growth in human and physical development as indicated by macro-economic indices such as Human Development Index and Fixed Capital Formation. A significant proportion of the accumulated wealth is invested in buildings and infrastructure which are highly susceptible to strong ground motion since the region is located along an active plate boundary. In the case of Trinidad and Tobago, Fixed Capital Formation accumulation since 1980 is almost US$200 billion dollars. Recent studies have indicated that this twin island state is at significant risk from several seismic sources, both on land and offshore. To effectively mitigate the risk it is necessary to prescribe long-term measures such as the development and implementation of building code and standards, structural retrofitting, land use planning, preparedness planning and risk transfer mechanisms. The record has shown that Trinidad and Tobago has been been slow in the prescribing such measures which has consequently compounded it vulnerability to large earthquakes. This assessment reveals that the losses from a large (magnitude 7+) on land or an extreme (magnitude 8+) event could result in losses of up to US$28B and that current risk transfer measures will only cater for less than ten percent of such losses.