Evidence for a New Geomagnetic Jerk in 2014

Abstract:

The production of quasi-definitive data at an observatory has enabled us to detect a new geomagnetic jerk in 2014. The jerk has been confirmed by inspecting recent direct observations of the development of the time derivative of the field elements at several other geomagnetic observatories. Its characteristics are similar to those reported for previous jerks, though on this occasion the change in the secular variation slope in Europe almost equals that experienced at the Africa-Atlantic observatories. A global model produced with the latest available satellite and observatory data supports these findings, giving a global perspective on both the jerk and a related secular acceleration pulse at the core-mantle boundary. Should the present field variation persist, predictions from models produced with data only up until the epoch during which the jerk occurred, such as the 12th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field, might be poorer than expected in the upcoming years.