Assessment of air quality management policies in China with integrated model framework: Case study for Hebei province

Abstract:

The Chinese government has pledged to clean urban air within five years from 2013 to 2017, to promote annual average PM_2.5 concentration decline by 25%, 20% and 15% in the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, respectively. The national targets are disaggregated into provinces, where region-specific action plan is designed and implemented by local government. It is particularly important to timely assess the effectiveness of local emission control measures and guarantee local efforts are in line with the national goal. We develop an integrated model framework for air quality management and policy evaluation, by integrating a dynamic high-resolution emission model, an emission scenarios analysis tool, and a 3-D air quality model. We then put the model system into pilot use in Hebei province for policy making to achieve the air quality target of 2017. We first integrate over 3000 point source facilities into this system to develop a high-resolution emission inventory. Upon the base emission dataset, the efforts to mitigate emissions with current and enacted measures are tracked and quantified to dynamic account of emission changes monthly. Strict policies are designed within the model framework through analyzing the potential to cut emissions for each point source. The finalized policy package can reduce emissions of major air pollutants by 20%-40%, respectively, leading to large decrease of ambient PM_2.5 concentration.