Future changes in atmospheric condition for the baiu under RCP scenarios

Abstract:

This study focuses on atmospheric circulation fields during the baiu in Japan with global warming projection experimental data conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model (MRI-AGCM3.2) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. This model also used 4 different sea surface temperature (SST) initial conditions. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI).

The baiu front indicated by the north-south gradient of moist static energy moves northward in present-day climate, whereas this northward shift in future climate simulations is very slow during May and June. In future late baiu season, the baiu front stays in the northern part of Japan even in August. As a result, the rich water vapor is transported around western Japan and the daily precipitation amount will increase in August. This northward shift of baiu front is associated with the westward expansion of the enhanced the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) into Japan region. However, the convective activity around northwest Pacific Ocean is inactive and is unlikely to occur convective jump (CJ).

These models show that the weak trough exists in upper troposphere around Japan. Therefore, the cold advection stays in the northern part of Japan during June. In July, the front due to the strengthening of the NPSH moves northward, and then it stays until August. This feature is often found between the clustered SSTs, Cluster 2 and 3. The mean field of future August also show the inflow of rich water vapor content to Japan islands. In this model, the extreme rainfall suggested tends to almost increase over the Japan islands during future summer.

This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).