Susceptibility of South Korea to hydrologic extremes affecting the global food system

Abstract:

Food security in South Korea is closely linked to trade in the global food system. The country’s production of major grains declined from 5.8 million metric tons (mmt) in 1998 to 4.8 mmt in 2014, which coincided with a shift in grain self sufficiency from 43% down to 24% over this same period. Many factors led to these changes, including reductions in domestic agricultural land, governmental policies supporting industry over agriculture, and a push towards trade liberalization. South Korea’s self sufficiency is now one of the lowest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, leaving it vulnerable to disruptions in the global food system.

Here we explore this vulnerability by assessing how global trade disruptions would affect Korea’s food security. We impose historical extreme drought and flood events that would possibly affect today’s major food producing regions concurrently. Next we compute food supply deficits in South Korea that might result from these events. Our analyses provide a framework for formulating domestic food policies to enhance South Korea’s food security in the increasingly fragile global food system.