Impacts of Climate Change on Electric Transmission Capacity and Peak Electricity Load in the United States

Abstract:

Climate change may hinder future electricity reliability by reducing electric transmission capacity while simultaneously increasing electricity demand. This study estimates potential climate impacts to electric transmission capacity and peak electricity load in the United States. Electric power cables suffer decreased transmission capacity as they get hotter; similarly, during the summer peak period, electricity demand typically increases with hotter ambient air temperatures due to increased cooling loads. As atmospheric carbon concentrations increase, higher air temperatures may strain power infrastructure by reducing transmission capacity and increasing peak electricity loads. Taken together, these coincident impacts may have unpredictable consequences for electric power reliability. We estimate the effects of climate change on both the rated capacity of transmission infrastructure and expected electricity demand for 120 electrical utilities across the United States. We estimate climate-attributable capacity reductions to transmission lines by constructing thermal models of representative conductors, then forcing these models with downscaled CMIP5 temperature projections to determine the relative change in rated ampacity over the twenty-first century. Next, we assess the impact of climate change on electricity demand by using historical relationships between ambient temperature and utility-scale summertime peak load to estimate the extent to which climate change will incur additional peak load increases. We use downscaled temperature projections from 11 CMIP5 GCM models under 3 atmospheric carbon scenarios. We find that by mid-century (2040-2060), climate change may reduce average summertime transmission capacity by 4-6% relative to the 1990-2010 reference period. At the same time, peak summertime loads may rise by roughly 2-12% on average due to increases in daily maximum air temperature. In the absence of energy efficiency gains, demand-side management programs and transmission infrastructure upgrades, these load increases have the potential to upset current assumptions about future electricity reliability. Failure to account for the effects of climate change on the electrical grid may leave power providers unprepared to meet future electricity needs.